Whale loses $863.9K betting against UFC main event on Polymarket

A trader operating under the label SecondWindCapital lost roughly $863,887 on Polymarket after wagering that the UFC 328 middleweight showdown between Sean Strickland and Khamzat Chimaev would not occur. According to data tracked by Polywhale, the trader purchased over 1 million shares of the "No" outcome at an entry price of 82 cents on May 9, 2026, just hours before the event was set to take place.

The market resolved to YES at 06:55 AM UTC on May 10, 2026, confirming that the main card fight did indeed happen as scheduled. Since the trader held "No" positions, all 1,053,521 shares were rendered worthless, translating to a near-total loss of the $863,887 entry investment.

The transaction, executed through wallet Polymarket whale, was recorded on-chain with hash Polymarket whale. The position size and timing suggest a significant conviction bet against the event taking place.

This loss highlights the risk involved in trading conditional markets on Polymarket, especially when positioning against high-profile live events. Polywhale's tracking data shows that large "No" positions on fight-related markets carry inherent exposure to swift resolutions when events proceed as planned.