When Polymarket was wrong?
Polymarket has faced criticism for prediction inaccuracies. Notable examples: 2024 Election - Showed Trump leading significantly before election day, which proved accurate but raised manipulation concerns due to $30M pro-Trump bet.
Biden withdrawal - Correctly predicted Biden's withdrawal weeks before it happened. However: Scholars have challenged whether Polymarket efficiently aggregates information. NY Times review found hundreds of false and misleading posts on Polymarket's social media.
Some markets show suspicious timing suggesting insider trading rather than accurate predictions. The platform advertises markets reflect real-time sentiment but accuracy is not guaranteed.